开放条件下利率、汇率联动与金融风险防范研究——以我国上市商业银行为例

随着我国金融开放程度的加深,人民币汇率与利率的联动关系将进一步加强,这种联动关系既是开放经济条件下的自我平衡机制,也可能成为金融风险传递和积累的通道.本文通过suR方法,分析利率、汇率变动对上市银行的影响,进而探讨利率、汇率联动与金融风险的关系.     

Quadratic BSDEs driven by a continuous martingale and applications to the utility maximization problem

In this paper, we study a class of quadratic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), which arises naturally in the utility maximization problem with portfolio constraints. We first establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions for such BSDEs and then give applications to the utility maximization problem. Three cases of utility functions, the exponential, power, and logarithmic ones, are discussed. This study is part of my PhD thesis supervised by Professor Ying Hu and defended at the University of Rennes 1 (in France) in October 2007.     

规模对中国工业行业全要素生产率影响的研究——基于规模水平溢出效应、前向溢出效应和后向溢出效应

本文首先分析了规模水平溢出效应、前向溢出效应、后向溢出效应对全要素生产率的作用机理;然后基于投入产出模型,定义了规模水平溢出效应、前向溢出效应、后向溢出效应,对中国工业行业数据进行分析,发现规模水平溢出效应和规模前向溢出效应显著地促进了全要素生产率的增长,但是规模后向溢出效应对下游行业全要素生产率的影响不明显。最后针对性地提出政策建议。     

浙江金融业的产业功能定位分析

本文运用投入产出法及相关统计指标,分析了浙江金融业在经济发展中的功能及其与其他产业的关联性.结果表明,浙江金融业对GDP、税收、就业等关键经济发展指标有显著贡献,金融产业后向推动作用突出,与第三产业关联性强,行业增加值高.浙江应当将金融业作为一个重要的战略性产业来发展.     

沪深港股市动态联动性研究——基于三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC的新证据

随着经济全球化的迅速发展,国际资本市场呈现出一体化趋势,各地证券价格的联动性也日趋显著。本文梳理已有理论文献,并总结经验成果的不足,在此基础上,构建三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC整合分析框架,对沪深港股市联动效应进行了严谨而全面的实证检验。研究结果表明:沪深港三个市场具有联动效应,直接或间接引导对方;沪深股市对港市的新息冲击做出类似的反应,并且它们与港市的动态关联性具有趋同性,该结论为沪深两市合并提供了新证据;三个市场的相关性具有时变的动态特征,"中国因素"与"世界因素"的相关性正趋于增强。上述实证结论对投资者重新认识市场运行机制,合理制定投资策略以及监管当局有效防范国内外股市风险,推进股市整合均具有重要的启示意义。     

反假币联动机制存在的不足及建议

目前,反假货币工作形成了一个全社会相关职能部门共同参与的联动机制,对做好防范、打击假币犯罪活动,遏制假币发展势头起到了积极的作用。但在实践中发现,各成员单位作用发挥的不尽理想,人民银行在此项工作中上演着＂独角戏＂,本文对如何发挥反假货币联席单位作用,引导各相关部门自觉参与,完善考核制度,提升履职能力进行了探索。     

物流业与制造业联动发展研究

文中从我国制造业物流现状入手,提出了加强我国制造业与物流业联动发展的必要性和紧迫性,然后分析了我国制造业物流业联动存在的主要问题以及相关对策。     

Stopping with anticipated regret

This paper analyzes a stopping problem where the decision maker is driven by anticipated ex-post regret. There are two sources of potential dynamic inconsistency, one is arrival of information and the other is changing choice opportunities over time—discarding the current stopping option may change how she stops the game in the future.First we consider a naive planner who prescribes a commitment solution, and illustrate the nature of the inconsistency problem. Then we consider a sophisticated planner who plays backward induction against her ‘successive selves’. The resolution of dynamic inconsistency does not in general allow the use of standard dynamic programming technique. We provide, however, a simple characterization of the backward induction strategy, which is given in a recursive formula.We also provide a behavioral implication, that larger indeterminacy of belief may lead to a more aggressive behavior, that is, continuing the gamble longer, which contrasts to the implication of ambiguity aversion.     

社会复合体:杭州“和谐创业”模式的新型组织结构

近年来,杭州在继续实践"和谐创业"发展模式的基础上,又创新了其组织结构即新型的社会复合体,以作为深化和拓展"和谐创业"的承栽人和推进者.认真探讨其社会复合体的运行机制和实现务件,对于进一步完善和推广"和谐创业"的发展模式,全面落实科学发展观,具有重要的理论和现实意义.     

A Review of Statistical Methods for Genome Mapping

Framework maps of the human genome are an important staging post in the on-going effort to sequence the entire genome. The existence of high quality maps is also a prerequistite for studies attempting to determine the location of genes involved in common diseases. The basic experimental approaches to constructing both genetic and physical maps are briefly described as well as their respective uses. A variety of statistical approaches to map construction are outlined including parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methodologies. The mostly widely used of these, the method of maximum likelihood, is discussed in detail, particularly in the context of physical mapping using radiation hybrids. Finally, current statistical issues and problems in the field of genome mapping are described.